Dunedin, New Zealand
Tier 4 · needs Kp 6 · Bortle 5. Live answer for Dunedin tonight.
Crunching NOAA Kp, cloud cover, moon phase and darkness for Queenstown…
connecting to NOAA SWPC + Open-Meteo…
Queenstown looks south into the aurora australis, the southern counterpart of the northern lights, and its behaviour is governed by the same geomagnetic activity that drives displays over the Arctic.
Queenstown needs Kp 6 and sits under some of the darkest skies in New Zealand. The mountains that make the town famous also mean you need to be deliberate about direction — you want the open southern horizon over a lake, not a wall of rock directly in front of the aurora.
There is no dark season to plan around at Queenstown: the sun reaches at least 18° below the horizon on every night of the year, so the sky can be genuinely black in any month you choose. What varies is the length of the usable window and the weather — the southern winter simply gives you more hours of darkness per night to work with.
Daylight is not a limiting factor at Queenstown: the sun gets 68.4° below the horizon on the darkest night of the year, and there is no stretch of the calendar when the sky fails to go dark. Everything then comes down to cloud and geomagnetic activity.
Lake Wakatipu is the obvious answer: a large dark surface, a low horizon over the water to the south, and easy access from the town.
Everything you are looking for is in the southern sky over the magnetic pole, so the practical requirement is simple: an unobstructed southern horizon with no artificial light in your line of sight. The "best window" shown above picks the first hour where cloud cover drops under roughly 40% while the sky here is genuinely dark.
Kp is a planetary number, and the only way to read it usefully is against this city's own threshold. For Queenstown that threshold is Kp 6, set by a magnetic latitude of -45°:
| Kp index | What Kp means in Queenstown |
|---|---|
| Kp 0 | No display at this latitude; the activity is confined south of Queenstown. Worth knowing so that a quiet night reads as expected rather than disappointing. |
| Kp 1 | Not visible here. On these nights a trip south would be the only option. On those nights the forecast at the top of this page will say NO, and that is the honest answer. |
| Kp 2 | Nothing from Queenstown — the oval stays too far south. Nothing to plan around — save the trip for a stronger forecast. |
| Kp 3 | Not visible here. On these nights a trip south would be the only option. Worth knowing so that a quiet night reads as expected rather than disappointing. |
| Kp 4 | Possible as a low smudge from a dark-sky site — the city's own light will beat it. Give your eyes 20 minutes to adapt before deciding it is a no. |
| Kp 5 | Marginal: expect at most a dull arc low in the south, and only away from town. A camera will pull more colour out of this than your eyes will. |
| Kp 6 | This is the threshold night — a clear sky puts a pale green arc over the southern horizon, brighter during substorms. Have a dark-sky spot picked out before you set off. |
| Kp 7 | A good display: brighter arcs, rays climbing higher, curtains beginning to form overhead. This is the range where phone cameras start to work. |
| Kp 8 | Storm-level display — vivid colour, fast movement, and the aurora high overhead. These are the nights people travel for. |
| Kp 9 | Exceptional event (G4–G5). At this level the display can fill the whole sky above Queenstown, not just the southern horizon. Find a wide-open horizon — at this level the display can move overhead. |
Two things have to line up for Queenstown: the planetary index has to reach about Kp 6, and the local sky has to be clear. Kp is a three-hour planetary average, so a display can start and fade inside one interval, and short substorm bursts routinely outperform the headline number. When the answer above says MAYBE, that usually means the geomagnetic side is fine and cloud is the question.
Five inputs produce the answer at the top of this page, and every one of them is specific to Queenstown: the NOAA Kp forecast against a threshold of Kp 6 (35% of the score), cloud cover through the night at -45.03°, 168.66° (25%), the moon (15%), astronomical darkness at this latitude (15%), and light pollution at Bortle 4 (10%). How the score is built, where the numbers come from and where the method can go wrong are all set out on our methodology page. There is nothing to install and nothing to sign up for: the calculation runs in your browser against NOAA and Open-Meteo. The only third parties are anonymous analytics and Google's ad script — our privacy page lists what each one does.
Watch for Kp 6. The table further up this page walks through each index value for Queenstown specifically, but the short version is that 6 is the first level where a clear sky is likely to reward you, and Kp 8 is where the display stops being subtle. It is a magnetic-latitude figure (-45°), so it does not shift with the seasons or the solar cycle — only with how the field happens to be behaving on the night.
There is no month to rule out at Queenstown — full astronomical darkness arrives every night of the year, so the calendar never decides the outcome. The night with the clearest forecast is the night to go, and late evening through to about 01:00 is when activity tends to peak.
In principle, but not on a typical night. With Bortle 4 skies, Queenstown's light dome hides everything short of a bright, active display. The difference between watching from the centre and watching from dark ground half an hour away is not marginal — it is the difference between a grey smudge and something you will remember.
Dark enough all year. On the darkest night the sun reaches 68.4° below the horizon, and it clears 18° on every night of the year, so Queenstown never has a bright-night problem.
Four of the five inputs are measured, not modelled: NOAA's Kp forecast (good to roughly 12 hours), Open-Meteo cloud for Queenstown's exact coordinates, moon illumination, and the darkness window computed for this latitude. The fifth is Bortle 4 light pollution. Where the forecast is genuinely uncertain — substorm timing at minute scale — the page shows MAYBE rather than a false GO.
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Sydney (~4h)