Fairbanks, United States
Tier 1 · needs Kp 2 · Bortle 3. Live answer for Fairbanks tonight.
Crunching NOAA Kp, cloud cover, moon phase and darkness for Seattle…
connecting to NOAA SWPC + Open-Meteo…
Aurora sightings over Seattle are storm events. The city sits well south of the auroral oval, so a display means the geomagnetic field is doing something unusual — and the Kp number required is correspondingly high.
Seattle needs Kp 6, and cloud is the whole story. The latitude is reasonable — comparable to Copenhagen — but the Pacific Northwest is one of the cloudiest regions in the United States, and a Kp 6 storm that nobody sees because of overcast is the normal outcome rather than the exception.
The calendar is not the constraint at Seattle — the sun clears 18° below the horizon on all 365 nights, so the sky is dark enough whatever month you pick. Pick the night with the clearest forecast instead, and expect the northern winter to give you the most hours in which to use it.
Daylight is not a limiting factor at Seattle: the sun gets 65.8° below the horizon on the darkest night of the year, and there is no stretch of the calendar when the sky fails to go dark. Everything then comes down to cloud and geomagnetic activity.
When a clear night does line up, head east over the passes or north along the coast; either direction removes both the city's light and, often, the low marine cloud.
Your viewing direction is fixed by Seattle's position relative to the magnetic pole: look north, low on the horizon at first, and find somewhere that side is open and unlit. The "best window" figure above is simply the first hour tonight where cloud cover falls under roughly 40% while the sky is dark enough here to show anything.
Here is what each Kp value would actually put in Seattle's sky — the row that matters is the one at Kp 6, which is where this city's magnetic latitude of 47.6° places its threshold:
| Kp index | What you'd see from Seattle |
|---|---|
| Kp 0 | Not visible here. On these nights a trip north would be the only option. Worth knowing so that a quiet night reads as expected rather than disappointing. |
| Kp 1 | No display at this latitude; the activity is confined north of Seattle. On those nights the forecast at the top of this page will say NO, and that is the honest answer. |
| Kp 2 | No display at this latitude; the activity is confined north of Seattle. Nothing to plan around — save the trip for a stronger forecast. |
| Kp 3 | Nothing from Seattle — the oval stays too far north. Worth knowing so that a quiet night reads as expected rather than disappointing. |
| Kp 4 | Marginal: expect at most a dull arc low in the north, and only away from town. Check the cloud forecast before committing to the drive. |
| Kp 5 | Possible as a low smudge from a dark-sky site — the city's own light will beat it. Give your eyes 20 minutes to adapt before deciding it is a no. |
| Kp 6 | A real display at this level: arcs forming on the northern horizon with visible structure and motion. A clear sky is the deciding factor at this level. |
| Kp 7 | Worth clearing your evening for: structure, movement and colour, with rays extending high into the sky. Get out early — the best structure often arrives in the first hour. |
| Kp 8 | Storm-level display — vivid colour, fast movement, and the aurora high overhead. These are the nights people travel for. |
| Kp 9 | Severe storm (G4–G5): the aurora reaches deep into mid-latitudes. From Seattle, look straight up — it can be everywhere. Watch the live forecast through the evening; this level can build quickly. |
At Bortle class 8, Seattle's own light is the biggest single obstacle between the forecast and what you actually see. A Kp 6 night that shows beautifully from open country shows as nothing from a lit street. When the verdict above is GO or MAYBE, budget the drive out of town into the evening.
Tonight's verdict for Seattle weights five inputs: the live Kp forecast measured against this city's own Kp 6 threshold (35%), night-average cloud cover at 47.61°, -122.33° (25%), moon illumination (15%), the astronomical darkness window computed for this latitude (15%), and light pollution at Bortle class 8 (10%). The method, its data sources and its known limitations are documented on our methodology page. No signup, no app, no account — the page computes everything in your browser from NOAA and Open-Meteo directly. Anonymous analytics and Google's advertising script are the only third parties involved, and both are set out on our privacy page.
The threshold for Seattle is Kp 6, and it is worth understanding what that does and does not mean. It is not a switch: nights that peak at exactly 6 often deliver a modest arc, while a substorm inside the same three-hour window can produce something far brighter. Everything the answer above shows you is built on that threshold plus the cloud and moon situation at Seattle.
In principle, but not on a typical night. With Bortle 8 skies, Seattle's light dome hides everything short of a bright, active display. The difference between watching from the centre and watching from dark ground half an hour away is not marginal — it is the difference between a grey smudge and something you will remember.
There is no month you need to rule out at Seattle: the sun gets at least 18° below the horizon every night of the year. That leaves weather and geomagnetic activity as the only real variables. Within a given night, 21:00–01:00 local tends to be the most active stretch.
It is a weighted composite of the NOAA Kp forecast against a local threshold, Open-Meteo cloud cover at Seattle's exact coordinates, the moon, and the darkness and light-pollution situation at this latitude (Bortle 8). Because cloud dominates so many nights, the score is designed to come back LOW or MAYBE more often than GO.
Dark enough all year. On the darkest night the sun reaches 65.8° below the horizon, and it clears 18° on every night of the year, so Seattle never has a bright-night problem.
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