Edinburgh, United Kingdom
Tier 2 · needs Kp 5 · Bortle 7. Live answer for Edinburgh tonight.
Crunching NOAA Kp, cloud cover, moon phase and darkness for Belfast…
connecting to NOAA SWPC + Open-Meteo…
Belfast is well outside the normal aurora zone, so a display here requires a genuinely strong geomagnetic storm — which is exactly why the sightings that do happen make the news.
Belfast needs Kp 6. Northern Ireland's latitude is similar to northern England's, but the weather is the defining factor — this is one of the cloudier corners of the UK, so a Kp 6 forecast here is worth checking against the cloud forecast before you commit to going out.
Belfast's deep-dark season runs from about **7 Aug** to about **5 May**: 272 nights a year on which the sun sits at least 18° below the horizon and the sky is genuinely black. Those dates come out of the city's latitude and longitude, not out of a regional generalisation. The counter-season is just as clearly defined: from about **6 May** to **6 Aug** (93 nights) the sun never gets 18° below the horizon, so the sky never reaches full darkness, and between roughly 5 Jun and 6 Jul it does not get properly dark at all — no display, however strong, is visible in that stretch.
On the darkest night of the year the sun sinks to 58.8° below the horizon at Belfast — deep enough that the sky itself stops being the limiting factor. From roughly 6 May to 6 Aug the nights never reach full astronomical darkness, so the practical season is shorter than the calendar suggests.
The coast of County Down and the Antrim coast both offer dark northern horizons; the further from the city, the more of the display you will actually see.
Everything you are looking for is in the northern sky over the magnetic pole, so the practical requirement is simple: an unobstructed northern horizon with no artificial light in your line of sight. The "best window" shown above picks the first hour where cloud cover drops under roughly 40% while the sky here is genuinely dark.
The table below converts the abstract Kp index into what it actually means from Belfast, using its magnetic latitude of 54.6° and threshold of Kp 6:
| Kp index | What Kp means in Belfast |
|---|---|
| Kp 0 | Nothing from Belfast — the oval stays too far north. Nothing to plan around — save the trip for a stronger forecast. |
| Kp 1 | No display at this latitude; the activity is confined north of Belfast. Worth knowing so that a quiet night reads as expected rather than disappointing. |
| Kp 2 | No display at this latitude; the activity is confined north of Belfast. On those nights the forecast at the top of this page will say NO, and that is the honest answer. |
| Kp 3 | Nothing from Belfast — the oval stays too far north. Nothing to plan around — save the trip for a stronger forecast. |
| Kp 4 | Marginal: expect at most a dull arc low in the north, and only away from town. Check the cloud forecast before committing to the drive. |
| Kp 5 | Marginal: expect at most a dull arc low in the north, and only away from town. Give your eyes 20 minutes to adapt before deciding it is a no. |
| Kp 6 | A real display at this level: arcs forming on the northern horizon with visible structure and motion. Worth clearing an evening for if the cloud cooperates. |
| Kp 7 | Strong showing — tall rays, obvious colour, and curtains that reach well above the horizon. Get out early — the best structure often arrives in the first hour. |
| Kp 8 | A big night: the lights are overhead rather than on the horizon, moving quickly and showing strong colour. Get out early: big displays often peak within an hour of the substorm. |
| Kp 9 | Once-a-cycle territory (G4–G5). Displays of this size have been seen overhead at latitudes like Belfast's. Rare enough that it is worth cancelling other plans for. |
At Bortle class 7, Belfast's own light is the biggest single obstacle between the forecast and what you actually see. A Kp 6 night that shows beautifully from open country shows as nothing from a lit street. When the verdict above is GO or MAYBE, budget the drive out of town into the evening.
Five inputs produce the answer at the top of this page, and every one of them is specific to Belfast: the NOAA Kp forecast against a threshold of Kp 6 (35% of the score), cloud cover through the night at 54.60°, -5.93° (25%), the moon (15%), astronomical darkness at this latitude (15%), and light pollution at Bortle 7 (10%). The scoring method, its inputs and its failure modes are written up in full on our methodology page. No account, no app, no email address — everything above is computed in your browser from NOAA and Open-Meteo data. Anonymous analytics and Google's advertising script are the only third parties involved, both explained on the privacy page.
Watch for Kp 6. The table further up this page walks through each index value for Belfast specifically, but the short version is that 6 is the first level where a clear sky is likely to reward you, and Kp 8 is where the display stops being subtle. It is a magnetic-latitude figure (54.6°), so it does not shift with the seasons or the solar cycle — only with how the field happens to be behaving on the night.
The centre is the wrong place on almost every night. At Bortle 7 the light dome swallows anything short of a strong display, and at Kp 6 the aurora arrives as a faint, low arc. Head out of town and the same forecast looks completely different.
272 nights a year reach full astronomical darkness here, with the sun dropping to 58.8° at its lowest. The other nights are the trade-off: around 6 May to 6 Aug, the sun stays too high for a true black sky.
Five inputs, refreshed every 15 minutes: the NOAA SWPC Kp forecast, hourly cloud cover for Belfast's coordinates from Open-Meteo, the moon, this latitude's astronomical darkness window, and Bortle 7 skies. Where the science genuinely cannot resolve the night ahead — substorm timing inside a three-hour Kp interval — the page says MAYBE instead of inventing certainty.
Plan around roughly 7 Aug to 5 May. Those dates are computed for Belfast's own coordinates — 272 nights on which the sun reaches 18° below the horizon. From about 6 May to 6 Aug, by contrast, the sky never goes properly black here, and no storm is strong enough to change that.
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