Yellowknife, Canada
Tier 1 · needs Kp 1 · Bortle 3. Live answer for Yellowknife tonight.
Crunching NOAA Kp, cloud cover, moon phase and darkness for Edmonton…
connecting to NOAA SWPC + Open-Meteo…
Aurora sightings over Edmonton are storm events. The city sits well south of the auroral oval, so a display means the geomagnetic field is doing something unusual — and the Kp number required is correspondingly high.
Edmonton needs Kp 6 and is the northernmost of the larger Canadian prairie cities — noticeably further north than Calgary, though in our data both land on the same threshold. It is a long way from any ocean, which means dry, stable winter air and, in deep winter, extremely long nights.
Edmonton has 280 genuinely dark nights a year, from about **3 Aug** through to about **9 May**. That figure comes out of the city's own latitude rather than a regional rule of thumb, which is why it can sit weeks away from a neighbouring city. The counter-season is just as clearly defined: from about **10 May** to **2 Aug** (85 nights) the sun never gets 18° below the horizon, so the sky never reaches full darkness, though the sky stays dark enough in the early hours that a bright display is still worth looking for.
The nights here do get genuinely dark — the sun bottoms out 59.9° below the horizon in midwinter. But for roughly 10 May to 2 Aug it never gets that low, and the sky stays too bright for anything but the strongest displays. The season is therefore defined by dark nights, not by calendar dates.
The roads leading out of the city in almost any direction reach open farmland within twenty minutes, with nothing but a low horizon in front of you.
One practical rule covers most of it: from Edmonton the aurora appears in the northern sky, so plan the spot around that view rather than the forecast. The "best window" above is the earliest hour tonight where cloud cover drops below roughly 40% and the sky at this latitude is genuinely dark.
The table below converts the abstract Kp index into what it actually means from Edmonton, using its magnetic latitude of 53.5° and threshold of Kp 6:
| Kp index | What to expect at Edmonton |
|---|---|
| Kp 0 | No display at this latitude; the activity is confined north of Edmonton. On those nights the forecast at the top of this page will say NO, and that is the honest answer. |
| Kp 1 | Nothing from Edmonton — the oval stays too far north. Nothing to plan around — save the trip for a stronger forecast. |
| Kp 2 | No display at this latitude; the activity is confined north of Edmonton. Worth knowing so that a quiet night reads as expected rather than disappointing. |
| Kp 3 | Nothing from Edmonton — the oval stays too far north. On those nights the forecast at the top of this page will say NO, and that is the honest answer. |
| Kp 4 | Marginal: expect at most a dull arc low in the north, and only away from town. A camera will pull more colour out of this than your eyes will. |
| Kp 5 | Possible as a low smudge from a dark-sky site — the city's own light will beat it. Check the cloud forecast before committing to the drive. |
| Kp 6 | A real display at this level: arcs forming on the northern horizon with visible structure and motion. Worth clearing an evening for if the cloud cooperates. |
| Kp 7 | Worth clearing your evening for: structure, movement and colour, with rays extending high into the sky. Any genuinely open horizon will do at this level. |
| Kp 8 | Everything you came for. Overhead curtains, rapid movement, and colour visible without a camera. These are the nights people travel for. |
| Kp 9 | Once-a-cycle territory (G4–G5). Displays of this size have been seen overhead at latitudes like Edmonton's. Find a wide-open horizon — at this level the display can move overhead. |
At Bortle class 7, Edmonton's own light is the biggest single obstacle between the forecast and what you actually see. A Kp 6 night that shows beautifully from open country shows as nothing from a lit street. When the verdict above is GO or MAYBE, budget the drive out of town into the evening.
Tonight's verdict for Edmonton weights five inputs: the live Kp forecast measured against this city's own Kp 6 threshold (35%), night-average cloud cover at 53.55°, -113.49° (25%), moon illumination (15%), the astronomical darkness window computed for this latitude (15%), and light pollution at Bortle class 7 (10%). The method, its data sources and its known limitations are documented on our methodology page. No signup, no app, no account — the page computes everything in your browser from NOAA and Open-Meteo directly. Anonymous analytics and Google's advertising script are the only third parties involved, and both are set out on our privacy page.
Kp 6 is the practical bar at Edmonton, set by a magnetic latitude of 53.5°. Anything below that stays too far northern to reach this horizon. Above it, the display becomes something worth standing outside for — and from Kp 7 it is hard to miss.
Rarely. Bortle 7 is a bright sky, and the aurora at Kp 6 arrives as a low, faint arc that this much light pollution erases. The practical rule at Edmonton is that the forecast tells you whether it is worth driving out, not whether you can see it from your window.
Dark enough for a genuinely black sky on 280 nights a year, with the sun sitting 59.9° below the horizon at its deepest. The exception is roughly 10 May to 2 Aug, when it never gets 18° below and full darkness never arrives.
It is a weighted composite of the NOAA Kp forecast against a local threshold, Open-Meteo cloud cover at Edmonton's exact coordinates, the moon, and the darkness and light-pollution situation at this latitude (Bortle 7). Because cloud dominates so many nights, the score is designed to come back LOW or MAYBE more often than GO, and to return NO outright for the 85 bright nights each year when nothing would be visible here.
Plan around roughly 3 Aug to 9 May. Those dates are computed for Edmonton's own coordinates — 280 nights on which the sun reaches 18° below the horizon. From about 10 May to 2 Aug, by contrast, the sky never goes properly black here, and no storm is strong enough to change that.
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