Yellowknife, Canada
Tier 1 · needs Kp 1 · Bortle 3. Live answer for Yellowknife tonight.
Crunching NOAA Kp, cloud cover, moon phase and darkness for Winnipeg…
connecting to NOAA SWPC + Open-Meteo…
Aurora sightings over Winnipeg are storm events. The city sits well south of the auroral oval, so a display means the geomagnetic field is doing something unusual — and the Kp number required is correspondingly high.
Winnipeg needs Kp 7 despite sitting at almost 50°N. The reason is the shape of the geomagnetic field over central Canada, and it is worth understanding before you write the city off: the threshold is high, but the settings are ideal — dead-flat terrain, dry continental air and very cold clear nights.
The dates worth planning around at Winnipeg are **17 Jul** to **26 May**. Inside that run the sun clears 18° below the horizon on 314 nights and the sky is dark enough for a faint arc to register; outside it you are relying on twilight and luck. The counter-season is just as clearly defined: from about **27 May** to **16 Jul** (51 nights) the sun never gets 18° below the horizon, so the sky never reaches full darkness, though the sky stays dark enough in the early hours that a bright display is still worth looking for.
The nights here do get genuinely dark — the sun bottoms out 63.5° below the horizon in midwinter. But for roughly 27 May to 16 Jul it never gets that low, and the sky stays too bright for anything but the strongest displays. The season is therefore defined by dark nights, not by calendar dates.
The prairie surrounding the city is flat and empty in every direction, so a short drive puts a completely unlit horizon around you.
Your viewing direction is fixed by Winnipeg's position relative to the magnetic pole: look north, low on the horizon at first, and find somewhere that side is open and unlit. The "best window" figure above is simply the first hour tonight where cloud cover falls under roughly 40% while the sky is dark enough here to show anything.
Kp is a planetary number, and the only way to read it usefully is against this city's own threshold. For Winnipeg that threshold is Kp 7, set by a magnetic latitude of 49.9°:
| Kp index | What you'd see from Winnipeg |
|---|---|
| Kp 0 | Nothing from Winnipeg — the oval stays too far north. On those nights the forecast at the top of this page will say NO, and that is the honest answer. |
| Kp 1 | No display at this latitude; the activity is confined north of Winnipeg. Nothing to plan around — save the trip for a stronger forecast. |
| Kp 2 | No display at this latitude; the activity is confined north of Winnipeg. Worth knowing so that a quiet night reads as expected rather than disappointing. |
| Kp 3 | No display at this latitude; the activity is confined north of Winnipeg. On those nights the forecast at the top of this page will say NO, and that is the honest answer. |
| Kp 4 | Nothing from Winnipeg — the oval stays too far north. Nothing to plan around — save the trip for a stronger forecast. |
| Kp 5 | Marginal: expect at most a dull arc low in the north, and only away from town. A camera will pull more colour out of this than your eyes will. |
| Kp 6 | Faint glow on the northern horizon, and only from genuinely dark ground outside the city. Check the cloud forecast before committing to the drive. |
| Kp 7 | Visible low on the northern horizon from Winnipeg — active arcs, and movement you can see with the naked eye. Worth clearing an evening for if the cloud cooperates. |
| Kp 8 | Worth clearing your evening for: structure, movement and colour, with rays extending high into the sky. Get out early — the best structure often arrives in the first hour. |
| Kp 9 | A big night: the lights are overhead rather than on the horizon, moving quickly and showing strong colour. Get out early: big displays often peak within an hour of the substorm. |
The most common reason people in Winnipeg miss a display is not a bad forecast — it is staying inside the city. At Bortle class 8, a Kp 7 event that would be obvious from open country can be completely invisible from a lit street. If the answer above says GO or MAYBE, treat the drive out of town as part of the plan rather than an optional extra.
Tonight's verdict for Winnipeg weights five inputs: the live Kp forecast measured against this city's own Kp 7 threshold (35%), night-average cloud cover at 49.90°, -97.14° (25%), moon illumination (15%), the astronomical darkness window computed for this latitude (15%), and light pollution at Bortle class 8 (10%). How the score is built, where the numbers come from and where the method can go wrong are all set out on our methodology page. There is nothing to install and nothing to sign up for: the calculation runs in your browser against NOAA and Open-Meteo. The only third parties are anonymous analytics and Google's ad script — our privacy page lists what each one does.
Treat Kp 7 as the number to watch in the forecast above. It is derived from Winnipeg's magnetic latitude of 49.9°, which is what actually governs how far northern the oval has to be pushed before the lights reach you — geographic latitude is a rough proxy for that at best.
Astronomical darkness runs from about 17 Jul to about 26 May. Between roughly 27 May and 16 Jul the sun never gets 18° below the horizon, so the sky never reaches full darkness — our engine returns NO during that stretch instead of pretending otherwise. Within any dark night, 21:00–01:00 local is the most active window.
Five inputs, refreshed every 15 minutes: the NOAA SWPC Kp forecast, hourly cloud cover for Winnipeg's coordinates from Open-Meteo, the moon, this latitude's astronomical darkness window, and Bortle 8 skies. Where the science genuinely cannot resolve the night ahead — substorm timing inside a three-hour Kp interval — the page says MAYBE instead of inventing certainty.
Dark enough for a genuinely black sky on 314 nights a year, with the sun sitting 63.5° below the horizon at its deepest. The exception is roughly 27 May to 16 Jul, when it never gets 18° below and full darkness never arrives.
During strong displays, yes, but Winnipeg's Bortle 8 light pollution washes out anything except the brightest activity. For a Kp 7 display, driving 20–40 minutes to darker surroundings roughly doubles what you will see.
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