Yellowknife, Canada
Tier 1 · needs Kp 1 · Bortle 3. Live answer for Yellowknife tonight.
Crunching NOAA Kp, cloud cover, moon phase and darkness for Montreal…
connecting to NOAA SWPC + Open-Meteo…
Montreal is well outside the normal aurora zone, so a display here requires a genuinely strong geomagnetic storm — which is exactly why the sightings that do happen make the news.
Montreal needs Kp 7, and sits at a latitude where the aurora is a storm event rather than a routine one. The advantage over Boston or Minneapolis is simple: it is further north, so the same storm produces a taller, brighter display here than it does a few hundred kilometres south.
Astronomical darkness — the sun more than 18° below the horizon, which is when the sky is genuinely black — occurs on all 365 nights of the year at Montreal's latitude. The season here is therefore set by weather and geomagnetic activity rather than by darkness: any month can deliver a display, and the northern winter is simply the part of the year with the most usable hours per night.
Even at mid-winter the sun only reaches 67.9° below the horizon at Montreal, and the nights stay dark enough for aurora watching right through the year. Here the practical constraint is never daylight — it is weather and how the geomagnetic field happens to be behaving.
The roads running north out of the city leave the light dome behind quickly, and the Laurentians give you dark, elevated ground to watch from.
Direction matters as much as darkness. The display will be over the magnetic pole, which from Montreal means the northern sky — so pick a viewpoint with nothing between you and that horizon, and put any streetlight behind you. Tonight's "best window" figure above is the first hour where cloud falls below about 40% inside this latitude's dark period.
Here is what each Kp value would actually put in Montreal's sky — the row that matters is the one at Kp 7, which is where this city's magnetic latitude of 45.5° places its threshold:
| Kp index | What you'd see from Montreal |
|---|---|
| Kp 0 | Nothing from Montreal — the oval stays too far north. Worth knowing so that a quiet night reads as expected rather than disappointing. |
| Kp 1 | Not visible here. On these nights a trip north would be the only option. On those nights the forecast at the top of this page will say NO, and that is the honest answer. |
| Kp 2 | Not visible here. On these nights a trip north would be the only option. Nothing to plan around — save the trip for a stronger forecast. |
| Kp 3 | Nothing from Montreal — the oval stays too far north. Worth knowing so that a quiet night reads as expected rather than disappointing. |
| Kp 4 | Nothing from Montreal — the oval stays too far north. On those nights the forecast at the top of this page will say NO, and that is the honest answer. |
| Kp 5 | Faint glow on the northern horizon, and only from genuinely dark ground outside the city. Check the cloud forecast before committing to the drive. |
| Kp 6 | Marginal: expect at most a dull arc low in the north, and only away from town. Give your eyes 20 minutes to adapt before deciding it is a no. |
| Kp 7 | This is the threshold night — a clear sky puts a pale green arc over the northern horizon, brighter during substorms. A clear sky is the deciding factor at this level. |
| Kp 8 | Worth clearing your evening for: structure, movement and colour, with rays extending high into the sky. This is the range where phone cameras start to work. |
| Kp 9 | Storm-level display — vivid colour, fast movement, and the aurora high overhead. Give your eyes time to adapt — the colour is obvious once they do. |
The most common reason people in Montreal miss a display is not a bad forecast — it is staying inside the city. At Bortle class 8, a Kp 7 event that would be obvious from open country can be completely invisible from a lit street. If the answer above says GO or MAYBE, treat the drive out of town as part of the plan rather than an optional extra.
Tonight's verdict for Montreal weights five inputs: the live Kp forecast measured against this city's own Kp 7 threshold (35%), night-average cloud cover at 45.50°, -73.57° (25%), moon illumination (15%), the astronomical darkness window computed for this latitude (15%), and light pollution at Bortle class 8 (10%). The scoring method, its inputs and its failure modes are written up in full on our methodology page. No account, no app, no email address — everything above is computed in your browser from NOAA and Open-Meteo data. Anonymous analytics and Google's advertising script are the only third parties involved, both explained on the privacy page.
Montreal needs roughly Kp 7 for the aurora to appear low on the northern horizon, based on its magnetic latitude of 45.5°. Anything from Kp 8–9 produces a much better display, with visible movement and colour. The live answer at the top of this page applies exactly this threshold to tonight's NOAA forecast.
The centre is the wrong place on almost every night. At Bortle 8 the light dome swallows anything short of a strong display, and at Kp 7 the aurora arrives as a faint, low arc. Head out of town and the same forecast looks completely different.
Montreal has astronomical darkness on all 365 nights of the year, so there is no dark season to plan around — the limiting factors are cloud and geomagnetic activity. On a strong night, 21:00–01:00 local is statistically the most active window.
It is a weighted composite of the NOAA Kp forecast against a local threshold, Open-Meteo cloud cover at Montreal's exact coordinates, the moon, and the darkness and light-pollution situation at this latitude (Bortle 8). Because cloud dominates so many nights, the score is designed to come back LOW or MAYBE more often than GO.
There is no bright season to work around: the sun gets at least 18° below the horizon on all 365 nights, dropping to 67.9° at its deepest. Sky brightness is never the reason you would miss a display here.
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