Yellowknife, Canada
Tier 1 · needs Kp 1 · Bortle 3. Live answer for Yellowknife tonight.
Crunching NOAA Kp, cloud cover, moon phase and darkness for Montreal…
connecting to NOAA SWPC + Open-Meteo…
Montreal sits at magnetic latitude 45.5°N, just south of the auroral oval. The aurora is not an everyday sight here — but during moderate geomagnetic activity it regularly pushes south, and locals know that a forecast of Kp 5+ is worth stepping outside for.
The answer above is not a guess: it applies Montreal's Kp 7 visibility threshold to the live NOAA forecast, then checks whether the sky will actually cooperate — cloud cover hour by hour, moonlight, the astronomical darkness window, and how much city light you're competing with. When the factors conflict, you get an honest MAYBE or LOW with the limiting factor named, not an inflated promise.
The aurora season in Montreal runs from **September to late March**, when nights are long and dark. The weeks around the autumn and spring equinoxes (late September, late March) statistically deliver the strongest geomagnetic storms — a quirk of how Earth's tilted magnetic field interacts with the solar wind — so those windows are worth planning around.
Light pollution is the biggest local obstacle: Montreal sits in Bortle class 8 skies — among the brightest there are. From downtown, only exceptional G4–G5 storm displays are visible at all. If a big storm is forecast, leave the city: a 30–60 minute drive to genuinely dark countryside is the difference between "nothing" and "the sky is on fire".
Direction matters as much as darkness. The aurora sits over the magnetic northern horizon — roughly magnetic north in Montreal — so pick a spot with an open view that way. Check the "best window" time in tonight's answer above: it marks the first hour where cloud cover drops below ~40% while the sky is properly dark.
This table converts the abstract Kp index into what it actually means from Montreal, at magnetic latitude 45.5°:
| Kp index | What you'd see from Montreal |
|---|---|
| Kp 0 | Nothing visible from Montreal. Stay in — or plan a trip north. |
| Kp 1 | Nothing visible from Montreal. Stay in — or plan a trip north. |
| Kp 2 | Nothing visible from Montreal. Stay in — or plan a trip north. |
| Kp 3 | Nothing visible from Montreal. Stay in — or plan a trip north. |
| Kp 4 | Nothing visible from Montreal. Stay in — or plan a trip north. |
| Kp 5 | Possible on the north horizon from dark-sky spots outside the city — faint glow at best. |
| Kp 6 | Possible on the north horizon from dark-sky spots outside the city — faint glow at best. |
| Kp 7 | Visible low on the northern horizon from Montreal — active arcs, movement noticeable. |
| Kp 8 | Good display: brighter arcs, rays climbing higher, curtains forming overhead or near it. |
| Kp 9 | Strong storm display — vivid colours, fast movement, aurora far overhead. |
One caution: Kp is a planetary average measured every 3 hours. A display can start and fade inside a single Kp interval, and short-lived bursts (substorms) can outperform the index. If tonight shows GO or MAYBE, it's worth checking the sky every 20–30 minutes rather than once.
We combine five weighted factors — Kp vs Montreal's threshold (35%), night-average cloud cover (25%), moon illumination (15%), the astronomical darkness window (15%), and light pollution in Bortle class 8 (10%). The full method, data sources and known limitations are documented on our methodology page. No signup, no app, no tracking — the page computes everything in your browser directly from NOAA and Open-Meteo.
Montreal needs roughly Kp 7 for the aurora to appear low on the northern horizon, based on its magnetic latitude of 45.5°. A Kp of 8–9 produces a much better display with visible movement and colour. The live answer at the top of this page applies exactly this threshold to tonight's NOAA forecast.
September to late March, with the equinox weeks (late September, late March) statistically producing the strongest storms. Within any night, 21:00–01:00 local time is the most active window, and the hours right after astronomical dusk are often best.
Technically yes during strong displays, but Montreal's Bortle 8 light pollution washes out anything but the brightest activity. For Kp 7 displays, drive 20–40 minutes to darker surroundings — it roughly doubles what you'll see.
The answer above combines NOAA SWPC's 3-day Kp forecast (most reliable under ~12 hours ahead), Open-Meteo hourly cloud cover for Montreal's exact coordinates, current moon illumination, the astronomical darkness window, and Montreal's light-pollution class. It is honest about uncertainty: the engine shows MAYBE or LOW rather than promising a show, and returns NO during the midnight-sun weeks when viewing is physically impossible.
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